Confirmed
The definition, primary source, and validation have all been published.
Methodology
Cycle-analysis methodology
Learn how BtcCal computes day offsets and distinguishes confirmed, provisional, and forecast data.
Each halving date is day zero
Dates before a season’s halving receive negative offsets; dates after it receive positive offsets. Calculations use UTC date boundaries.
Day offset = observation date (UTC) − halving date (UTC)
Selecting cycle lows and highs
The local MVP transfers the structural values from the operator-provided reference image. The final price-data coverage, selection rule, and primary sources have not been approved, so every historical coordinate remains provisional.
Before launch, the operator must approve a rule and revalidate each date under that same rule.
Three data states
Provisional
The value is useful for review, but an approval or source is still pending.
Forecast
The value describes a future range, not an observed event.
The season-five range
The low window of −542 to −513 days and high window of +526 to +548 days simply carry the observed season 2–4 bounds into season five. With a tiny sample and no price model, these ranges cannot be treated as confirmed dates.